Чего добиваются власти Украины?

Ввод Российских войск в Донбасс – это один из самых благоприятных вариантов развития событий для Киевского руководства. Во многом за этим и были сделаны такие громкие провокации – расстрел мирных жителей 9ого мая, Одесса, расстрелы больниц и госпиталей, оскорбление Путина Дещицей, затягивание переговоров по газу, Украинский БТР на Российской территории – все это делается для того, чтобы спровоцировать Россию на ввод войск. Чтобы понять почему — поставьте себя на место Киевских руководителей. Постарайтесь максимально реалистично представить себя на месте Порошено и др. руководителей – напрягите фантазию.

Итак. В параллельной вселенной вы (читающий) – представитель Киевской власти… Вам интересна власть, деньги, влияние, власть и еще раз деньги. Совсем недавно вы дорвались до власти и обещали всем райскую жизнь. Дорваться до власти было не просто. Ради власти в обещали, обещали и обещали. Обещали позитивные изменения в стране, обещали победить коррупцию, повысить уровень жизни, вступление в Евросоюз и еще много всего интересного. Обещали интенсивно и долго. Вам поверили. На эти красивые слова повелись массы людей. Прошло 3 месяца и что получила страна? Страна – банкрот. Просит деньги по миру с протянутой рукой. Потерян Крым, тарифы повышаются, гривна упала, все подорожало, разгул преступности, рейдерские захваты, разворованные бюджеты, Донбасс по факту не контролируется, стратегические компании отданы западным покровителям, визы никто не отменил, золотой запас вывезен, гражданская война, сокращения на предприятиях, армия не хочет воевать, на войну денег нет уже потрачен миллиард долларов, а результата – нет. Украина – самое нищее государство в Европе (ВВП на душу населения/ППС), а на горизонте только ухудшение материальной жизни. Тарифы будут подниматься еще долго, положение граждан будет только ухудшаться. Вы (тот, кто сидит в большом кабинете в Киеве) понимаете, что будет с вами? Вас же скоро разорвут на части. Это правда. Представьте ваш кабинет, представьте, что в него врывается злая толпа. Толпа может прийти и просто вас казнить. Те люди которые вам поверили и которым вы обещали лучшую жизнь.  Люди в Украине опытные — как свергать власть — знают.  И никакой беркут вас не защитит. Вы переживаете за свою жизнь и за свою власть.

Если Порошенко расскажет правду (все плохо и будет только хуже) – его быстро повесят. Остается только врать и отвлекать внимание. Внешний враг во все времена заставлял забывать о проблемах и мириться с лишениями. Когда москали наступают можно и поголодать. Но вот проблема – москали не наступают. Можно врать, что на востоке работает российская армия, но если ее там нет – ее там нет. Правда все равно просачивается и люди даже если публично и не признают этого в глубине души понимают, что никаких российских военных не воюет с Украиной.

На Донбасс Киеву в общем-то плевать. Он и так уже его не контролируют. Думаю, в Киеве если кто-то и надеется вернуть его под контроль, то уже давно не рассматривает такую вероятность как основную. Ограниченный ввод войск в Донбасс – это лучший подарок для хунты и их американских хозяев. Показательные акции, расстрелы больниц, жилых кварталов и другие резонансные показухи делаются для того, чтобы максимально задеть среднестатистического Россиянина. Обычный человек глядя на все этого начнет требовать у Путина ввод войск («Вова, ну почему мы бездействуем? Ну людей же убивают!»), что мы и наблюдаем. Что это им даст:

  • Вам нечего есть? Ну так москали же напали – к ним все вопросы
  • Страна разворована? Тарифы высокие, визы не дают? – ты бездушная скотина, у нас война, а ты о таких мелочах волнуешься!
  • У хозяев, американцев появляется повод разместить базы под боком у России
  • Хозяевам очень важно настроить украинцев против россиян. Настроить настолько сильно, чтобы исключить возможные союзы и теплые отношения на максимальный срок
  • Теперь давайте представим 30 миллионов голодных (в прямом смысле) фанатиков, которые уверены, что во всех их бедах виновата Россия – так и до взрывов в метро не далеко.
  • Для хозяев это положит крест на транзите газа, что откроет доступ американским компаниям на Европейский рынок.
  • Армия Украины сейчас не понимает за что воюет, но как только придут русские оккупанты – сразу станет понятно.
  • Восстановить быстро Донбасс не получится. Лет пять минимум там будут серьезные сложности. В этот период все будет очень просто свалить на Россию и настроить еще и Донбасс против России.
  • Американцы сделают все, чтобы конфликт был затяжной, и Россия в нем увязла.

Итог такой: для Киева вмешательство России решит все их не решаемые проблемы. Очень важно смотреть на ситуацию именно их глазами, а не вашими собственными. Этим людям плевать на страну, этим людям плевать на людей, этим людям плевать на то что будет с их страной. Этим людям не плевать только на собственную власть, деньги, и личную безопасность. Их проблема — это удержаться у власти в сложный период. Решением этой проблемы они заняты. Потому и ограниченный ввод войск решит все их проблемы, а не проблемы страны. Ключевое условие – это ограниченность ввода войск – чтобы Киев сохранил оставшуюся страну.

Вводить воска на всю Украину, думаю, все понимают — исключено. Страна большая и на 70% территории нас встретят как окупантов. Этот вариант исключен. Риск огромен. Хунта знает что Россия не пойдет на масштабную военную операцию потому провоцируя Россию — уверена, что Россия ограничится Донбассом.

Что будет если Россия не введет войска? Неизбежно наступят некоторые события:

  • Люди все больше и больше начнут понимать, что никаких российских войск на Украине нет
  • Деньги на военную операцию очень скоро закончатся. Война – это очень дорого
  • Еще раньше денег закончится мотивация у военных
  • Информация о преступлениях хунты будет просачиваться в массы
  • Свой гнев люди рано или поздно начнут направлять в адрес руководства страны, а гнева в Украине хоть отбавляй
  • Вероятность окончательной утери Донбасса – очень высока
  • Очень высока вероятность что от Украины начнут откалываться другие регионы и у Украины не будет средств чтобы их удержать.
  • Понимая, что пахнет жареным политические силы начнут сваливать вину за все происходящее на власть имущих. Внутри власть имущих начинается война на выживание.  Все топят друг друга. Обвинят их во всем в чем они виноваты и не виноваты. Это стандартная в политике вещь.
  • Когда пауки в банке начнут друг друга пожирать с очень большой вероятностью всплывут новые факты о событиях февраля, о расстрелах людей на майдане. Ведь между собой уже очень вероятно будут драться именно те, кто это и организовал.

Без российского вмешательства руководство Украины ждет очень сложный период. Вероятность что через год Порошенко будет висеть на виселице в центре майдана или бежит из страны – очень высока. Сидеть сложа руки – плохо, но еще хуже давать хунте то что ей нужно и то что поможет ей удержаться у власти. Лучшее что мы можем делать в этой ситуации – мы делаем – ускоряем падение хунты информационной и политической поддержкой ополченцам.

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